The conclusion is written at the beginning. This depends on whether two key conditions can be met:

• Are stablecoins more convenient, cost-effective, and cover more scenarios than existing payment methods?

• Can we quickly build a complete ecosystem that is “usable, easy to use, and safe to use” within a compliant framework?

1. Why has the “QR code payment era” not occurred in Hong Kong?

The reason is very realistic and simple:

• Cash Only can save handling fees
• The reason for accepting Octopus is that too many people use it, and merchants are “forced to adapt”.

In comparison, although Alipay/WeChat has slightly lower fees,

• No user base
• There is no super ecosystem of “Meituan + Taobao + Didi”.
• In Hong Kong, it is an “independent wallet” with limited functions and usage scenarios, so it can only serve as an auxiliary payment method for tourists.

Second, is it possible for Hong Kong to leap directly to stablecoin payment?

Currently, for stablecoins to truly enter daily life, there are still two core hurdles to overcome:

User experience is not yet “lifestyle-oriented” enough.

• Current discussions on stablecoins are still focused on: institutional settlement / cross-border payments / RWA asset issuance.

• How does the user side “buy coin → pay → receive payment → exit”? The process is complicated, lacks incentives, and has high educational costs.

Stablecoins are still far from being as convenient and easy to use as Octopus, WeChat, or Alipay.

Although there are “laws” for compliance, there is still a distance to “implementation”.

1. Compliance “licensed” ≠ payment landing In 2025, Hong Kong will officially launch a stablecoin licensing system, but currently:

• Regulatory guidelines and approval processes are still being tested.
• There is a waiting period for the official issuance and promotion to the retail market.

2. The wallet and payment gateway ecosystem is not fully set up yet.
Regulation mainly covers the issuance level, but is there a mature and user-friendly wallet app? Is there an ecosystem that seamlessly connects with merchant POS and payment gateways? Currently, the licensing system is still being built, and we have not yet entered the application construction period aimed at the general public.

3. The actual enforcement effects of regulation need time to be verified.
To dare to use stablecoins, the premise is: users must believe that it can be redeemed, redeemed quickly, and redeemed stably. Even if there is a license, will the market accept it? How does regulation ensure the redemption promise? If the transparency of reserve assets, user protection, and risk emergency measures are inadequate, a trust crisis may still occur.

Hong Kong missed out on QR code payments, not because of outdated technology, but because there were neither user pain points nor alternative incentives.

Can stablecoins jump directly to success?

To see:

1. Is it more convenient, cost-effective, and covers more scenarios than existing payment methods?
2. Can a usable ecosystem be quickly built within a compliance framework?

Hong Kong missed out on QR code payments because there was neither a user pain point nor an alternative motivation. If stablecoins want to skip the QR code era and directly integrate into real-life scenarios, they must truly break down the barriers between users and merchants from the two dimensions of “compliance + experience.”

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