Bitcoin aims for a new historical high! Ether skyrockets 43% leading the crypto market, Fed's interest rate cut expectations are favourable information for risk assets.

Bitcoin surged 4.5% over the weekend, just a step away from the historical high of $122,838 on July 14, with an increase of 7,834 BTC in the derivatives market Open Interest indicating that long positions are building up. Analysts predict a year-end target of $150,000, with Tuesday's U.S. CPI data being a key catalyst. Ethereum also exploded, rising 43% this month to break $4,300, reaching a new high since the end of 2021, driven by institutional accumulation, accelerated outflows from exchanges, and loosened staking regulations forming a triple thrust. The shift in regulatory policies provides support: stablecoins recognized by new accounting rules, pension funds opening up to encryption allocations, and the ban on bank service discrimination coming into effect, creating a golden opportunity for risk assets.

Bitcoin is about to break the previous high: driven by macro and funding factors

1. Interest rate cut expectations ignite risk appetite
   • The correlation between Nasdaq and Bitcoin on the 30th rose to 0.82, with the rally in tech stocks transmitting to the encryption market.
   • If Tuesday's CPI inflation data is lower than expected (current forecast 2.8%), the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate cut will soar to 85%.
   • The dollar index fell 1.2% weekly to 102.3, hitting a three-month low, with funds accelerating into risk assets.
2. Derivation market releases bull market signals
   • The weekly increase in open contracts reached 3.4 billion USD, and the funding rate for perpetual contracts remains at a neutral level of 0.01%.
   • Research institution Derive predicts based on volatility models: Bitcoin year-end target 150,000 USD
   • The surge in demand for put options warns of CPI data risks, and if inflation exceeds expectations, it may trigger a "short-term panic sell-off".

Ethereum leads the rise logic: Regulatory easing ignites institutional buying.

1. Policy shackles lifted
   • The SEC has clarified that liquid staking services are not securities, eliminating the biggest compliance risk for ETH.
   • Stablecoins are recognized as cash equivalents by new accounting regulations, eliminating obstacles to corporate balance sheet allocation.
   • White House Ban: Banks cannot refuse to serve cryptocurrency companies citing "reputational risk" (anti-bankization policy implementation)
2. On-chain Data Validates the Foundation of the Bull Market
   • The exchange had a net outflow of 33,000 ETH in a single day, with the staked locking amount surpassing 40 million coins.
   • July on-chain transaction volume $238 billion set a historical record, with network utilization reaching 98%
   • The weekly net inflow of the spot ETF is 1.8 billion dollars, with the premium rate of the Bitcoin ETF expanding to 3 times.

Market landscape has dramatically changed: The ETH/BTC exchange rate battle has begun.

• Bitcoin market share plummeted 4% in three weeks (62%→58%), funds accelerated rotation to Ethereum
• Real Vision Chief Analyst Jamie Coutts:

"Ethereum is becoming a twin engine of economic innovation in the United States alongside AI, and its decentralized finance and asset tokenization infrastructure is irreplaceable"

• Enterprises' treasury continues to increase its holdings of ETH, combined with ETF accumulation forming structural Close Position pressure.

Key Risk Warning: CPI Data Determines Life and Death

• Bullish Scenario (CPI≤2.7%):
  • Bitcoin breaks through $125,000 to open a new rising channel
  • Ethereum tests the $5000 mark, altcoin rebound market starts
• Bearish scenario (CPI≥2.9%):
  • Bitcoin may retrace to $115,000 (50-day moving average support)
  • Leveraged long positions liquidation may trigger a short-term liquidity crisis

Conclusion: The cryptocurrency market is at a triple resonance point of macro policy, capital rotation, and regulatory shifts. If inflation data supports, Bitcoin's historical high and the Ethereum 5000 USD battle may be settled this month. The breakthrough in regulation makes ETH the biggest winner, as institutions are promoting the cryptocurrency market towards a "dual leader pattern" through the dual-layer holding mechanism constructed by ETFs and corporate treasury. Investors should closely monitor the derivation leverage changes before and after the release of Wednesday's CPI data to guard against short-term volatility risks.