Ethena (ENA) price prediction: 100 million Token unlock and Aave Liquidity risk raise concerns about dumping.

Ethena (ENA) has recently experienced a pullback, currently priced at 0.586 USD, with a 24-hour decline of 2.9% and a weekly drop of 5.6%. This adjustment is mainly driven by two factors: approximately 100 million USD worth of 171.8 million ENA Tokens were unlocked on August 5 (accounting for 2.6% of total supply), raising concerns about market dumping; at the same time, risk analysis firm Chaos Labs warned that over 4.7 billion USD (55%) of USDe stablecoin's reserve assets depend on a single lending protocol, Aave, posing significant liquidity risks and systemic vulnerabilities. Although the long-term technical outlook for ENA remains bullish, short-term attention should be paid to the support range of 0.56-0.58 USD, as a breach could lead to a dip to 0.52 USD. This article will analyze the impact of Token unlocking, the exposure risk of Aave, and trading strategies around ENA's key support levels.

Token unlocking causes supply pressure, market activity slightly cools down On August 5th, the Ethena project completed the unlocking of approximately 100 million USD worth of 171.8 million ENA Tokens, accounting for 2.6% of its total supply. Currently, the circulation of ENA is only 41% of the total amount, and this large-scale unlocking may increase market selling pressure, especially if the recipients choose to sell for cash. Although ENA has achieved a 130% increase in the past month due to strong ecological partnerships and corporate treasury allocation demand, it is still difficult in the short term to counter the supply pressure brought by the unlocking.

Market activity shows signs of a slight decline:

• Spot Trading Volume: The 24-hour trading volume reported is USD 1.01 billion, a decrease of 3.9%.
• Derivatives trading volume: fell by 7.6% to $3.19 billion
• Open Interest: decreased by 3.6% to USD 1.06 billion ( Data source: Coinglass) The decline in derivatives data indicates a slight cooling of market speculation sentiment, with investors becoming cautious amid unlocking events and risk concerns.

Aave Exposure Risk Raises Alarm: Re-staking Model Has Systemic Vulnerabilities Apart from the token unlock, the report released by the risk analysis firm Chaos Labs on August 2 has sparked significant attention in the market regarding Ethena's increasing exposure on the Aave protocol. The report pointed out:

• High Concentration Risk: The Aave protocol currently holds over 55% of the reserve assets supporting the USDe stablecoin, worth up to 4.7 billion USD.
• Risks of Re-Staking Mode: Ethena adopts the "Asset Rehypothecation (Rehypothecation)" strategy, where the same batch of assets is used to support the value of the USDe stablecoin while generating returns in lending protocols like Aave. Although this model is common in traditional finance, the dual use significantly increases systemic vulnerability.
• Liquidity Crisis Warning: Chaos Labs warns that large-scale redemptions or trust crises, referred to as "deleveraging events", could trigger liquidity tightening, simultaneously impacting the two major protocols Aave and Ethena. As the supply of USDe surged 75% over the past month, reaching a record $9.3 billion, an over-reliance on a single lending protocol has become a potential threat to its stability.

ENA Technical Analysis: Short-term pullback does not change long-term trend, key support becomes the focus Despite the recent cooling of ENA prices, the technical analysis still shows that the key support level is effective:

• Momentum Indicator: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53, in the neutral zone, with no obvious overbought or oversold signals.
• Volatility Change: Bollinger Bands indicate that after the price retreated from the weekly high of $0.67, volatility has decreased.
• Moving Average System: Key moving averages are still in a bullish arrangement. The current price of ENA remains firmly trading above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA 50, $0.414) and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA 100, $0.389), the long-term bullish structure has not been damaged.

Key Support and Resistance Levels:

• Support level: If the price effectively falls below the current 0.56-0.58 USD consolidation range, it may further dip to the 0.52 USD support.
• Resistance Above: If it can stabilize and break through the $0.60 psychological level, it is expected to restart the upward trend, testing $0.65 and higher levels.

Conclusion: Unlocking and Liquidity Risk Double Test, ENA Trend Faces Key Decision Ethena (ENA) is currently experiencing dual challenges from the supply pressure caused by token unlocks and liquidity risk concerns triggered by Aave protocol exposure. Although the project's fundamentals maintain long-term potential due to ecosystem partnerships and corporate adoption, and the long-term technical trend remains unchanged, short-term market sentiment is clearly under pressure. Investors need to closely follow:

1. The actual release of selling pressure after Token unlocking;
2. Ethena team’s response measures to Aave concentration risk and changes in market confidence;
3. The defense strength of the support range of 0.56-0.58 USD on the technical front. If it can successfully digest the impact of unlocking, alleviate risk concerns, and hold key support, ENA is still expected to regain upward momentum. Conversely, if the support is lost or risk events escalate, it may face a deeper pullback. Traders should manage risks cautiously and pay attention to the dynamics of the aforementioned key factors.