Analysis of the Multiple Factors Behind the Surge in the Value of the Sui Ecosystem

Recently, the Sui ecosystem has experienced a significant increase in value, with its tokens rising over 75% within a week, far exceeding the overall market performance. This phenomenon is intertwined with multiple complex factors, including speculation driven by market rumors, noticeable changes in capital flow, and continuous improvements in the ecosystem's fundamentals. This article will delve into the capital movements, key catalysts, on-chain data performance, and potential risks of this price surge, providing a comprehensive interpretation of the logic behind this ecological frenzy.

Capital Flow Analysis: Influx of Hot Money into Exchanges, Surge in Contract Positions

From the perspective of on-chain capital flow, Sui has not shown significant changes recently. Over the past three months, Sui has experienced a net outflow of 32 million USD, which is relatively small. The changes in on-chain capital flow over the past month and week are even more negligible, and it hasn't even entered the top twenty in public chain rankings.

However, the capital flow at the exchange level is quite active. Data shows that the spot capital inflow of SUI reached 62.86 million USD in the past seven days, ranking fourth among all cryptocurrencies. In terms of contract capital inflow, several tokens from the Sui network ecosystem, such as WAL, MEMEFI, CETUS, etc., made it into the top ten, reflecting the capital activity within the Sui ecosystem.

The contract holding volume of the SUI token has surged since April 21, increasing from $700 million to $1.419 billion within a week, approaching the historical high of $1.5 billion. During this period, most tokens in the Sui ecosystem have also risen significantly, with 20% of tokens increasing by over 100% and 37.5% of tokens increasing by over 50%, showing a comprehensive upward trend.

From a financial perspective, this rise is a comprehensive collective boost for the Sui ecosystem. Although most projects have not made substantial positive progress, the price performance has been remarkably active.

Multiple positive news boost market sentiment

Starting from April 21, mainstream tokens began to rebound widely, and the rise of Sui was also initiated. Subsequently, several positive news reports emerged, but it is difficult to determine whether these news reports are the true driving force behind the rise or strategically released information to align with price increases.

The main positive news includes:

1. Pokémon collaboration rumors: Originating from the update of the privacy policy of the Pokémon HOME application, which lists Sui-related company Parasol Technologies as an authorized developer. This has sparked market speculation about Pokémon possibly integrating the Sui blockchain.

2. xMoney/xPortal Collaboration: Sui has announced a partnership with these platforms to launch the Sui-branded virtual Mastercard in Europe, integrated within the xPortal application, supporting payments with cryptocurrencies such as SUI.

3. ETF-related news: The earlier news about 21Shares establishing a legal trust entity for the "SUI ETF" has been revisited, providing support for the rise of SUI.

4. Other developments: including the Athens Stock Exchange Group building an on-chain fundraising platform on Sui, and Nautilus bringing verifiable off-chain privacy solutions to Sui.

These developments cover multiple areas such as Web3 gaming, privacy, and development environments, forming an overall favorable situation, which is different from the previous explosive reaction triggered by a single message from Sui.

Surge in DEX Trading Volume and Airdrop Effects

Since April, the DEX trading volume on the Sui network has remained at a high level, reaching a historic high of $998 million on March 29. The leading DEX project within the ecosystem, Cetus Protocol, has driven overall growth, with trading volume increasing by 84.5% in the past week, and its token CETUS price approaching a doubling.

Another important contributor is Kriya, which contributed a trading volume of $780 million on March 29, an increase of more than 100 times compared to the previous day. This surge is likely related to the airdrop activity of Walrus. On March 27, Walrus released an airdrop, and on that day, the trading volume of the token reached $380 million, becoming the main driver of the recent increase in trading volume on the Sui network.

Developer Activity and Potential Risks

The Github code submission frequency of the Sui network has significantly increased since December 2024, maintaining over 500 submissions per week, far exceeding competitors like Solana and Aptos. This reflects a highly active developer community.

However, there are still several noteworthy risk points in the market frenzy:

1. Token unlocking pressure: SUI unlocks tens of millions of tokens weekly, continuously bringing selling pressure to the market.

2. Imbalanced ecological structure: Currently, the rise is mainly led by DEX and infrastructure projects, while application and gaming projects are not performing prominently. The ecosystem still lacks "blockbuster" applications that can attract a large number of users.

Conclusion

The recent surge of the Sui ecosystem is the result of a combination of market speculation enthusiasm, capital inflow, contract market expectations, and fundamental progress. However, while paying attention to price performance, it is also necessary to be vigilant about the selling pressure brought by the continuous unlocking of tokens, and to focus on the further development of the application ecosystem. Whether a truly user-attractive blockbuster application can emerge will be key to determining whether Sui can convert the current popularity into long-term value.