Market sentiment is greedy, long-term holders are stabilizing, follow multiple indicators to seize investment opportunities.

Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior

The current market sentiment is in a state of greed, with the fear and greed index at 74, reflecting high investor confidence. This index experienced a significant drop in June, reaching its lowest point in nearly a year at the beginning of July, followed by a noticeable rebound.

The open interest of CME Bitcoin contracts has been continuously increasing since early July, only decreasing in late July. After Trump spoke at a Bitcoin-related conference, the open interest increased again. This indicates that investors remain optimistic about the market outlook, quickly regaining confidence even in the face of short-term volatility.

The short positions of leveraged funds have recently increased, which usually indicates that arbitrage funds are also increasing their positions in the spot market. When this indicator reaches a turning point and starts to decline, it often suggests that a bullish trend may emerge after short positions are closed.

The Bitcoin long position on a certain trading platform began to accumulate after hitting a low in mid-March and is currently still at a high level, but the growth trend has slowed down.

Analysis of Stablecoin Supply and Holder Behavior

The Stablecoin Supply Reaction Oscillator (SSRO) hit a low at the beginning of July and then began to rebound. This indicator reflects changes in on-chain capital participation, and the current low state provides favorable rebound conditions for the altcoin market.

The changes in the holding ratio of long-term Bitcoin holders show that during the major upward phase from December 2023 to April 2024, long-term holders continuously reduced their holdings. However, starting in April, as Bitcoin entered a wide fluctuation range, long-term holders tended to continue holding.

Long-term holders' unrealized net profit and loss indicator is currently operating in a relatively low range. Referring to historical cycles, this indicator may need to enter a higher range and maintain it for a period of time to form the peak of this round of market.

The net profit and loss indicator for short-term holders has fallen below zero twice in 2024. In mid-July, this indicator recovered to above zero, which may signal a possible wave of upward market movement in the future.

These indicators collectively reflect the complexity and potential opportunities in the current market. Investors should closely monitor changes in this data to better grasp market trends.