Institutional Fund Flow Analysis: Discussion on Potential Hot Tracks in the Next Round of the Crypto Market

Bitcoin has broken through $120,000, and Ethereum has returned to $3,400, leading to an increasingly heated discussion in the market about the return of altcoin season. Although there are doubts about whether altcoin season has truly arrived, if a new round of capital inflow begins, what opportunities should investors pay attention to? This article discusses five areas: asset reserves, ETF candidates, RWA, DeFi, and stablecoins from a subjective perspective.

It should be noted that the projects mentioned in this article are not short-term speculative targets, but rather directions that may attract more structural attention in the future based on current market trends. The crypto market is fraught with risks and opportunities, and investment should be approached rationally and with independent judgment.

Characteristics of the Current "Altcoin Season"

Unlike before, the dominant logic of this market round may change:

1. The macro environment has明显改善. The regulatory boundaries are becoming increasingly clear, and the entry barriers for traditional financial institutions are gradually being eliminated.

2. Institutional funds have become the dominant force. Compared to the "barbaric growth" driven by retail investors, institutional investment places more emphasis on compliance and fundamentals, and has a stronger market voice.

3. Market liquidity is concentrated on leading assets. Most altcoin prices have insufficient recovery, and liquidity is notably tightening.

This trend shift mainly stems from two aspects:

1. The institutional driving effect of Bitcoin spot ETFs
2. The siphon effect of listed companies accelerating the accumulation of Bitcoin

The recent rise of Ethereum also reflects the characteristics of institutional capital dominance:

1. Ethereum spot ETF has seen net inflows for 9 consecutive weeks.
2. A new narrative is forming for Ethereum as an asset reserve.

These signs indicate that the flow of institutional funds will become an important indicator of market hotspots. Sectors capable of accommodating large amounts of capital or experiencing an outflow of institutional funds may be more attractive.

Asset Reserve Track: Cryptocurrency on Corporate Balance Sheets

Based on the trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum, tokens included in corporate balance sheets are more likely to become an important investment direction in this round of "altcoin season." Currently, some mainstream altcoins have been included in the asset reserves of publicly listed companies, including BNB, SOL, TRX, and HYPE.

From the perspective of price elasticity, SOL has shown relatively weak performance in this round of price correction, with a relatively loose chip structure. Provided that the fundamentals remain intact, once market funds flow back, the price elasticity of SOL may become more pronounced.

As an emerging project, HYPE has a short lifecycle, but it may have greater "growth dividends" in the new cycle.

In the long run, tokens that can enter corporate balance sheets will become an important part of the "institutional main line" in the crypto market. It is worth keeping an eye on any more tokens that may be included in corporate balance sheets in the future.

ETF Candidate Tracks: Expansion of Institutional Investment Channels

ETFs are becoming an important narrative for altcoins as a key channel for institutional capital to enter the market. Potential ETF candidate coins include SOL, XRP, LTC, DOGE, ADA, DOT, HBAR, AXL, APT, etc.

Solana(SOL) has made progress in the altcoin ETF space. If a traditional spot SOL ETF is approved in the future, it may further enhance its market appeal.

XRP is facing a similar situation, as the New York Stock Exchange has now approved a futures-based XRP ETF. The regulatory dispute between Ripple Labs and the SEC may come to an end, and the possibility of the SEC approving an XRP spot ETF this year is relatively high. From the price trend, XRP has consistently maintained a strong resistance during multiple rounds of market adjustments.

The approval probability for LTC and HBAR is also relatively high, and both have not been marked as securities, with clear compliance attributes. Among them, HBAR has also shown strong resilience during market shocks.

RWA Track: On-chain Mapping of Real-World Assets

RWA has unlocked the potential for asset liquidity, transparency, and global accessibility by tokenizing traditional assets. With the optimization of the regulatory environment, the RWA sector has gained policy support and is expected to become one of the important tracks in this round of "altcoin season."

The protocols that have currently formed scale and issued tokens mainly include Ondo(ONDO) and Centrifuge(CFG). As an indispensable technological pillar in the RWA track, Chainlink(LINK) is also worth paying attention to.

DeFi track: Real Cash Flow and Institutional Exemption Catalyst

DeFi, as a core application of blockchain, is receiving policy support. The US SEC plans to launch an "innovation exemption" policy to pave the way for the compliant development of DeFi projects. On-chain data shows strong performance, with DEX trading volume continuing to grow.

As the Ethereum ecosystem continues to heat up, the DeFi projects on it are most likely to benefit from the capital overflow effect. The lending sector leader AAVE and the DEX sector leader UNI, with their mature ecological positions and stable revenue models, may become the preferred choice for capital. HYPE, as an emerging potential project, is rapidly growing in the derivatives trading field, demonstrating certain investment attractiveness.

Stablecoin Track: The Narrative Closest to Real Payment Implementation

The next wave of real adoption for cryptocurrencies may come from stablecoins and the payments sector. As regulatory frameworks become clearer, the stablecoin track forms a synergy with RWA and the DeFi track.

As an investment target, attention can be paid to the governance tokens of decentralized stablecoins, such as MKR behind DAI or ENA behind USDe. Sky(, formerly MakerDAO), is a leader in the decentralized stablecoin field, maintaining a healthy financial status through investment in tokenized US Treasury bonds. Ethena, on the other hand, is an emerging protocol launching in 2024, with a locked fund scale that can rival Sky.

Conclusion

The true explosion of altcoin market requires the joint catalysis of capital structure, policy environment, and market narrative. As Bitcoin and Ethereum become core assets in institutional holdings, a new "altcoin logic" quietly takes shape: only coins with fundamentals, a clear narrative, and acceptance by institutions are likely to navigate through the fog of valuation reconstruction and become real winners in the upcoming cycle.