Ethereum price breaks through $2,827, reaching a 15-week high

The price of Ethereum broke through $2,827 on June 10, 2025, reaching a new high in 15 weeks. Behind this price breakthrough lies a potential liquidation storm involving $1.8 billion in short positions. In this seemingly coincidental market movement, the trading pattern of a mysterious whale becomes key to interpreting market sentiment.

According to on-chain data, an anonymous address completed two precise operations within 44 days:

1. April 27: Purchased 30,000 ETH at an average price of $1,830, totaling $54.9 million;
2. May 27: Sold an equivalent amount of ETH at a price of $2,621, earning a profit of $23.73 million, with a return of 43%;
3. June 10: Sold 30,000 ETH again for $82.76 million, locking in a profit of $7.3 million, with total profits reaching $31 million.

This operation is not an isolated case. Data shows that Ethereum futures open interest (OI) has first surpassed the $40 billion mark, and the market leverage ratio is approaching a critical point. The current market presents a delicate balance: there is a $2 billion long liquidation risk around $2,600, while there is an $1.8 billion short liquidation risk above $2,900. This standoff between longs and shorts means that any breakout in either direction could trigger a chain reaction.

As prices rise, the Ethereum ecosystem is undergoing structural changes. In the second quarter, the number of independent active addresses surged by 70%, reaching a peak of 16.4 million on June 10. Among them, a certain scaling network accounted for 72.81% (11.29 million addresses), becoming the growth engine, far exceeding the Ethereum mainnet's 14.8% (2.23 million addresses). This model of "scaling networks feeding back into the mainnet" differs from past growth logic.

Despite Ethereum still holding a 61% share of the DeFi market with a TVL of $66 billion, its core revenue model has shown signs of concern:

• Network transaction fees have significantly decreased, only $43.3 million in the past 30 days, a reduction of 90% compared to before;
• The staking yield remains sluggish, with an annual return of only 3.12%;
• Regulatory pressure has led to a net outflow of $369 million from ETH spot ETFs for 8 consecutive days.

These contradictions are reflected in on-chain data: the proportion of long-term holders (over 1 year) has decreased from 63% to 55%, while the selling volume of short-term holders has increased by 47%.

The derivatives market is also full of undercurrents. The open interest in ETH futures has exceeded $40 billion for the first time, indicating that market volatility may increase. Clearing data shows:

• There is a risk of $2 billion in long liquidations in the $2,600-$2,665 range;
• Short positions of 1.8 billion dollars are facing liquidation above 2,900 dollars;
• Institutional participation is uneven, with a certain exchange's Ethereum futures open interest accounting for only 9%, far lower than Bitcoin futures at 24%.

From a technical perspective, the current market shows the following characteristics:

• The daily Bollinger Bands have narrowed to 5%, the lowest level in recent times, indicating a potential breakout soon;
• The weekly indicators show divergence, the price is stable above the key moving averages, but the momentum indicators indicate insufficient upward momentum;
• $2,800 will become the key point of contention between bulls and bears, with a breakout potentially opening up a target of $3,200-$3,500; otherwise, a pullback to $2,500 may seek support.

On a macro level, geopolitical situations and central bank policy expectations create a dual impact. The market's expectation for 2-3 interest rate cuts in 2025 has reached 79%. If the actual policy deviates, it could have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market.

Ethereum is facing multiple challenges and opportunities:

• Consider optimizing the staking mechanism through technical upgrades to alleviate liquidity pressure;
• Explore allocating part of the network transaction fees to the mainnet to solve the contradiction of "ecological prosperity and declining mainnet revenue;"
• Changes in regulatory attitudes may lead to short-term price fluctuations and long-term changes in circulation.

Market analysts believe that after breaking through $2,800, Ethereum may initiate a new round of rise to $5,232. However, it is important to be cautious, as the current market situation is largely driven by leverage, and the $1.8 billion short position could serve as fuel for driving prices, but it also increases uncertainty and risk in the market.